Kentucky Derby Day Picks for May 1, 2010
If you’re looking for the regular “Ink in My Coffee” writing post, it’s below.
Here are my picks for tomorrow’s race card at Churchill Downs:
Rock Hard, Stay Put, Kettle River — across the board and a boxed trifecta
Zimmer and Spicer across the board. If Bold Victory looks good in the paddock, I might toss him into the mix.
Race 3 (Turf):
Beyond Our Reach and Dyani. If it goes off the turf for some reason, I’d flip them and put Dyani on top. My long shot pick for this race is Kathern’s Kitten, although I’ll also take a look at Lemonappeal. If Stormy Tess gets in, I’ll put another longshot bet on that horse.
Wise Dan and Spooky’s Ready are my top picks, although I also want to take a look at Don’t Put it Back and Good Lord.
Race 5 (Turf):
Pickapocket looks interesting here, although I might just skip this one unless I fall in love at the paddock.
Race 6 — Eight Belles Stakes:
Hot Dixie Chick, Visavis, Decelator — probably bet all three across the board, and one trifecta in the order listed above. And I’ll take a moment to mourn the lovely Eight Belles, for whom the race is named.
Race 7 — Churchill Distaff (Turf):
Tizaqueena across the board — I’m a sucker for any of the “Tiz” horses. I’ll probably add Phola and/or Fantasia to the mix, depending upon how they look in the paddock. Less familiar with the GB horse Fantasia, but because this is a mile, her stamina might be more suited.
Race 8 — Humana Distaff:
Informed Decision, Free Flying Soul, Warbling — across the board, and a Trifecta in that order.
Race 9 — Churchill Downs Stakes:
Munnings and Musket Man across the board. I’m kind of surprised that Hull’s odds are so long, so I’ll probably put a Place bet on him. Cool Coal Man and Kensei’s odds also seem a little long to me — I want to take a look and might toss one of them into the mix.
Race 10 — Woodford Reserve Turf Classic:
This is a mile and an eighth, and many horses aren’t bred for this distance, so I’m favoring the British-bred Battle of Hastings and the Irish Loup Breton. I’ll also put Court Vision into the mix here, and maybe use Pop Tarrt at my longshot.
Race 11 — Kentucky Derby:
All my favorites are out of the race, and I’m seriously bummed. So, I’m starting from scratch.
Lookin at Lucky is the favorite here, but in the 1 hole — worried he’ll get squished. I’ll probably toss some money his way, thought. Dean’s Kitten is 50-1 right now, so he’ll probably be my longshot show bet. I’m surprised that Paddy O’Prado’s odds are so long and that Sidney’s Candy’s odds are so short. I kind of like Ice Box — his grandfather is AP Indy — but his style as a closer concerns me in a 20 horse field.
I might toss a few bucks his way. Jackson’s Bend is gorgeous, I like his running style, and the fact he’s got Mike Smith as his jockey. So chances are, he’ll see some of my cash, at least for a place bet. BackTalk is sired by Smarty Jones, which is promising, but the fact that American Lion beat him by 14 lengths just a few weeks ago (and, at this moment, American Lion doesn’t make my cut) worries me. I’m also on the fence about Conveyence. I think he’s talented, but can he keep his head straight in such a busy field?
Devil May Care is the filly in the race. She’s trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Johnny Velazquez, who brought Rags to Riches home as the Belmont Winner a few years back. She will definitely get some of my money (got to support my tribe, after all). The 5th place finish in the Silver Bullet Day worries me a bit, but the Pletcher/JV combo (who would have been on my first choice fave Eskendereya, had he not been injured), can’t be ignored. Her grandfather’s AP Indy and her sire’s Mailibu Moon, so she should have some of that AP Indy grit. If she doesn’t make the top three, I think she’ll be fourth, but I’m hoping she’s in the top three.
If this race was shorter and I thought he could wire it, I’d toss Discreetly Mine into the mix, but the way this is shaking out, I think I’ll pass on him this time out. Homeboykris has one of my all time faves Fusaichi Pegasus as his grandfather, but that horse’s daughters have done better than the sons, so I’ll pass. Mission Impossible is so gorgeous I might have to root for him; the sire as Unbridled worries me a little, because they tend to run a bit recklessly, although they’re damn fast. I’m worried he’ll break down in the race. SuperSaver is sired by Maria’s Mon, and his dam was sired by AP Indy. If, for some reason, it rains, I’ll put him into the mix.
As of today, my picks are:
Lookin at Lucky, Devil May Care, Paddy O’Prado — across the board
Ice Box, Jackson’s Bend — place
Mission Impossible, Dean’s Kitten — show
Boxed exacta — Lookin at Lucky & Sidney’s Candy, Lookin at Lucky & Devil May Care
Still undecided, but may bet if they look good — Backtalk, Conveyence
If it rains — SuperSaver added in across the board
I always like the race after The Big Race because so few people pay attention to it, and you can usually make some $$$.
Flying Pegasus, Thunder Jack, EZ’s Gentleman across the board
Devastator at my long shot show bet (he’s currently 50-1)
Moe Man & Scary Good across the board
Deets & Gallentos to place
Thunder Highway — long shot show
Let’s hope it’s a wonderful day with NO INJURIES.
On today’s card at Churchill, there’s a horse in the 5th race named War Tigress I’ll bet across the board. I’m also betting Rachel Alexandra across the board in the 6th race, the La Troienne, and boxing her in an exacta with Unrivaled Belle. If Cool Coal Man runs today in the 9th instead of tomorrow, I’ll bet him here. I’m betting Setsuko across the board in the 10th race (I think he’s a Belmont contender, and he should have been in the Derby). The Oaks is a challenge today — I guess Blind Luck across the board, with Allalea and Bella Diamante in the mix, and possibly Crisp or Tidal Pool.